Bombshell new poll predicts Labour are doomed as Reform surges ahead | Politics | News

Reform UK MPs are predicted to increase leads in their seats at the next General Election according to experts in a huge win for Nigel Farage‘s party.

Electoral Calculus, a quantitative political consultancy, has issued predictions for the next nationwide vote.

This is expected in 2029. Mr Farage attained 46.2 per cent vote share in Clacton in July.

Now, he is predicted to win 53.1 per cent when constituents next cast their ballots. The Tories are expected to increase their vote by a small amount – from 27.9 per cent to 29.4 per cent.

Labour’s, though, is thought to plummet, from 16.2 per cent to 7.3 per cent. Lee Anderson MP was elected in Ashfield in Nottinghamshire with a 5,508 majority.

He received 42.8 per cent of the vote. But its is now thought that he will be returned with 49 per cent.

Labour, meanwhile, is expected to fall from 29 per cent of the vote share to just 20.2 per cent.

Richard Tice MP is Reform UK’s deputy leader and represents Boston and Skegness in the House of Commons.

He was elected with 38.4 per cent of the vote share in July.

But Mr Tice is now predicted to win with 45.4 per cent of ballots.

The Conservative candidate came second with 33.4 per cent of the vote.

They are expected to fare somewhat better in 2029 with 35 per cent, as Labour’s ballots decrease from 18.9 per cent to 10.1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Rupert Lowe MP in Great Yarmouth is expected to increase his share from 35.3 per cent to 42.1 per cent.

James McMurdock in South Basildon and East Thurrock is expected to retain his seat with 39 per cent.

He received 30.8 per cent of ballots in July. Overall, current predictions from Electoral Calculus suggest that Labour would be short of a majority by 41 seats.

Regarding its predictions, Electoral Calculus says: “We can use our experience of both elections and innovative MRP analysis to make predictions of the likely result, and the chances of various outcomes.

“Not only are our methods more accurate than conventional polling, but they are also more cost-effective than other MRP providers.

“We can work either with your existing pollster or commission custom polling for you, and feed the polling into our analysis.

“The prediction will include both the likely overall result, and the result in every relevant geographic region or seat.

“Forecasting results can never be completely guaranteed, but we will strive hard to get you a credible election forecast based on scientific methods and responsible fieldwork.”