Crunch point approaches in Tory leadership race

The coming weeks will define how politics at Westminster looks and feels for the years ahead.

The government will set out its Budget at the end of October.

And a few days later the Conservatives will pick their new leader.

The post election period will come to an end: the contours of Labour’s plans will become clearer, Rishi Sunak will be gone as Leader of the Opposition, his replacement will have been elected.

But who will it be?

The next 48 hours will be crucial in answering that.

Firstly, the contest on Tuesday.

A quartet will become a trio.

Then, on Wednesday, a trio will become a pair – and then the wider Conservative Party membership will pick from the final two.

Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat are hitting the phones and supping breakfast, lunch, tea, coffee, dinner, beer and wine with any Conservative MP with an appetite or a thirst.

Even the most ravenous are beginning to tire of the attention now.

In the last round, almost a month ago, the shadow work and pensions secretary Mel Stride managed 16 votes and was eliminated.

That means there are 16 votes looking for a new home.

In a party of just 121 MPs, 16 votes is a lot. And more on that in a minute.

Tom Tugendhat appeared to enjoy the Conservative Party Conference – handing out tat, sorry, memorabilia to anyone willing to take it: smarties, baseball caps, pens, notepads, even lollipops with a picture of him in the middle.

He also passionately and with an authentic anger hit out at Mr Jenrick at the gathering in Birmingham, in an interview on the BBC’s Newsnight, over the frontrunner’s use of a video featuring a former military comrade who later died.

And his team are delighted by the positive remarks of veteran journalist Charles, now Lord Moore in the Daily Telegraph, describing him as “the most credible as a leader who rises to the grim challenges our world currently presents.”

Nonetheless, the widespread expectation among the various camps is Tom Tugendhat is likely to be the next to be eliminated.

This is primarily because there is an equally widespread sense that James Cleverly has momentum – after he appeared to make the most of his moment with his speech at conference.

He has secured the endorsement of Mel Stride, Mr Stride writing in the Daily Telegraph that Mr Cleverly “won conference.”

But he is also having to deal with criticism for – as some see it – setting in train as Foreign Secretary the process that has led the government to give up sovereignty over the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean.

His team push back that in 15 months at the Foreign Office he didn’t do that, and Labour did within three months of arriving in office.

By Tuesday evening, when they are down to the final three, the big sprint will be on.

Because in Wednesday’s vote, it’s not really about first and second place, but rather about two golden tickets to reach the vote of the wider party membership, and one loser.

Team Jenrick, who have had a confidence, even swagger, throughout, continue to exude both.

They push back on the criticism they received from Mr Tugendhat and others at conference, saying “we had the rows we wanted to.”

They are particularly passionate about, and proud of, having a distinctive position from their arrivals in advocating withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights – whatever the arguments this provokes.

And they are increasingly of the view it will be them and James Cleverly who make the final two.

Let’s see.

Mr Cleverly is certainly the opponent they want.

Why?

Because “dogs bark, cats meow and the Right wing candidate wins Conservative leadership races with the members” as one member of Team Jenrick puts it.

They fear Kemi Badenoch could beat them, but they reckon they would beat James Cleverly.

As for Team Badenoch, they are talking up the endorsement they have had from former cabinet minister David Davis and another from the Governor of Florida, Ron De Santis.

They believe they articulate a distinctive, original, pugnacious Conservatism that would present the government with the most awkward opposition.

But they too acknowledge privately James Cleverly performed well at conference.

And so here is a question: how might Conservative MPs and the party at large react if Mrs Badenoch, who is loved by plenty of her supporters, fails to make the final pair?

Some of her supporters acknowledge things could be bumpy.

There is, then, plenty at stake – and a crucial few days ahead, which could define what opposition looks like to the government in the years ahead, and help shape how competitive or otherwise the Conservatives are come the next election.