How ‘Trump Whale’ Théo Made $48 Million: Neighbor Effect Poll
On Election Day, an anonymous trader called the “Trump whale” got lucky. Or maybe it was more than luck.
Not only did he predict that Donald Trump would win the presidency, but he also bet big that Trump would win the popular vote and triumph in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The “Trump whale,” who calls himself Théo and is a French national, was so confident he bet more than $30 million of his own money through the crypto betting site Polymarket, according to the Wall Street Journal.
How Much Did Théo Win?
Théo used four anonymous accounts on the site to make bets, with the usernames Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie. At the time of writing, Theo4 and Fredi9999 rank as the first and second most profitable accounts of all time on Polymarket; PrincessCaro and Michie are in eighth and fourteenth place, respectively.
Bloomberg estimates that Théo will make a profit of $48 million from those four accounts based on the election results.
How the ‘Neighbor Effect’ Helped the ‘Trump Whale’ Win Big
Théo told the WSJ that he had experience working as a trader and that his bets were really bets against the validity of U.S. polling data— he looked into U.S. polls over the summer and judged that they were skewed towards Harris.
In Théo’s words, the polls didn’t account for two effects: the “shy Trump voter effect” and “the neighbor effect.”
Related: ‘Major Impact’: Here’s What the Big Four Firms Have to Say About the 2024 Election
The “shy Trump voter effect” refers to Trump supporters who don’t want to participate in polls or are reluctant to outright voice their support for Trump.
“The neighbor effect” was Théo’s solution to the problem: Instead of asking in a poll who the voter supports, “the neighbor effect” asks them who they think their neighbors are supporting. The question could indirectly show the voter’s true preferences.
Théo told the WSJ that he commissioned his own private surveys that took the neighbor effect into account — and unlike mainstream polls, the results of his surveys showed overwhelming, “mind-blowing” support for Trump.
The survey results helped inform Théo’s bets.
Polymarket saw more than $3.7 billion spent on presidential election bets overall.
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