Keir Starmer poll nightmare as Reform UK threatens to overtake Labour | Politics | News

Reform UK has seen the largest gain in support while the Conservatives are now the most popular party with a two-point lead over Labour, a new shock poll suggests.

Find Out Now published an update to its Voting Intention Tracker on Wednesday, showing that while the Tories saw only a small change in their vote share since Britain went to polls in July, Labour had a drop of nine points.

Reform, led by Nigel Farage, has seen the largest gain, increasing its 2024 GE support by eight points, according to the pollster. The boost was said to have been driven equally by former Conservatives and people who didn’t vote in the summer.

The firm also found that the combined vote share of Labour and the Conservatives is a mere 52%, which would be the lowest combined vote share for the two major parties ever.

Find Out Now interviewed 2,610 adults on November 27 and produced a sample of 2,316 respondents, which it says is national representative.

The firm company asks respondents how likely they would vote if a general election were held the following day. Those who said “definitely” or “very likely” are then asked their vote choice.

People who respond that they “Don’t know” are presented with an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer.

If they then provide a valid vote choice they are included, but are excluded from the final headline calculation if they answer “don’t know” again.

If respondents were eligible to vote at the last election but didn’t, they are included in the final headline calculation only if they say they are “definitely” going to cast their ballot this time as “voting behaviour is generally more predictive than declared intentions”.

Find Out How then filters and weighs the final sample to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Region and 2024 General Election vote. You can find out more about the methodology here.

But though signatories have to say they are UK citizens or residents and provide an email and postcode, there is not thought to be any other verification – meaning there’s a chance some are not British voters.

The Prime Minister dismissed the demands for a fresh general election earlier this week, blaming “difficult” decisions in the Budget for the backlash the Government is facing.