Labour says Army would be worn out in 6 months of war – the reality is worse | Politics | News

I must be honest, claims that the British Army would be wiped out in six months to a year in the event of war left me shocked this week, but not for the reason you might think.

The Veterans’ Minister and former Royal Marine colonel Al Carns gave the warning at a Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) conference, as he predicted that based on current Russian casualty rates, the British Army would struggle to sustain itself for more than a few months in conflict with a peer adversary.

But my shock came not from the clear message that the British Army is ill-prepared for war but from the fact that Carns was so optimistic.

It has been well-publicised that British Army troop numbers are set to fall below 70,000 next year, a number that would not fill Wembley stadium, and given Russian casualties are averaging 1,200 today then the maths points to being destroyed much faster than six months.

The figure imagines the army to exist in a fantasy world where that 70,000 figure consists of fully-trained, fully-fit combat troops which of course it does not. The 70,000 consists of HR professionals, chefs, the injured and over 50s coming to the end of a long career. None of these are likely to be storming Russian trenches with much hope of success.

In reality, the British Army has around 20,000 trained and deployable infanteers meaning that by Carns’ Russian casualty rate calculation, we are talking weeks not months.

Of course, there are several important caveats to the projections but the illustration is worth making. The army needs to prepare to be able to deploy, fight and win. Currently, it is not there but it doesn’t mean it can’t be.

The first caveat is that Britain would never tolerate daily casualties numbers that we are seeing inflicted on the Russians. Few leaders of liberal democracies could justify expending citizens’ lives in such a way and thus casualty estimates would influence strategy and tactics to avoid such losses.

Secondly, the 70,000 figure would immediately be bolstered by the “service liability” which allows the military to recall anybody who has left service in the last 18 years and is under 55 in the event of a national emergency, which includes me… fantastic.

This of course is only possible if the MOD possesses accurate records of former service personnel – I won’t hold my breath.

The service liability combined with the national desire to contribute to the protection of our nation, as we saw during Covid, would see recruitment offices bursting, creating a second wave of troops ready to complement existing forces.

Thirdly, regardless of the British numbers, the size of our armed forces is just one contribution to the size of the force we would go to war with. The UK will never go to war on its own again and thus in the event of conflict, we will be a contributing part of a wider and much larger force.

But Carns warning strikes at an important point: In our current state we are ill-prepared and the time to correct that is now.

So what does that preparation look like? Well it depends on what purpose the British Army wants to serve?

Either we want to be a light, agile force which complements bigger armies or we want to be one that can deploy and sustain one or more divisions. Currently we’re neither and the time for dawdling is over.

Our personnel size is an issue which we know needs to be addressed. In the event of war, we know where our strength will be drawn from but what work is being done to address that?

Reservists on the whole receive minimal training and records of who comprises the service liability are poorly maintained. We know in the event of conflict that civilians will be called upon to aid the effort but the need to begin the preparatory work of training and equipping them is being wilfully ignored out of fear.

It is one thing to have a reserve force, a service liability and motivated civilian population but becomes almost redundant if not prepared and maintained.

Only this year the Chief of the General Staff floated the idea of preparing civilians only to be shot down by politicians who fear short term public negativity more than the nation’s long-term inability to defend itself.

Carns is right, we need to begin preparing but he is either wrong or sugarcoating the truth with his fantasy that the British Army could last 6 months in its current state.

Conor Wilson served for 8 years in the British Army, leaving as a Captain in 2023.