Nigel Farage and Reform UK could blow apart the British political establishment | Politics | News

You don’t have to look too far to get an idea of just how much of an impact Reform UK is already having around the country.

Step onto the streets of most constituencies in Britain and you’ll find one of the party’s new branch offices.

They have mushroomed at a staggering rate since July’s General Election, from zero to more than 400.

Every seat in Wales and Scotland now has an office and, very soon, party insiders say, they will have one in all constituencies in the UK.

Nigel Farage, Reform’s leader, has always promised a “political earthquake” in British politics.

That happened when the Right-wing populist party stunned Westminster by securing five seats at the election.

Now Reform is building up, almost literally brick by brick, from the rubble left after that historic vote.

Its target?

To be in government after the next general election with Farage as prime minister.

When trying to understand the remarkable rise of Reform, you need to reflect on what went before.

In the autumn of 2018, while Theresa May was tying herself in knots trying to get Brexit through the Commons, a new political party was being born.

The Brexit Party – advocating a no-deal Brexit – was created and briefly led by Catherine Blaiklock until she resigned after her Islamophobic tweets came to public attention.

This put Farage, a former UKIP leader, in charge and the party’s fortunes quickly blossomed.

Some 29 Brexit Party MEPs were elected to the European Parliament in May 2019, including future leader Richard Tice and former Conservative MP Ann Widdecombe.

But then Boris Johnson got Brexit done and rode a wave of support to a landslide election victory in December of that year.

Britain’s exit from the EU prompted a name change and the Brexit Party morphed into Reform UK, with the party opposing further COVID-19 restrictions during the pandemic.

A year later, in March 2021 Farage quit politics and resigned as leader to be replaced by Tice.

For all of Tice’s capabilities and with Brexit done and dusted, it seemed Reform had reached its limit.

But then the Tory party pressed self-destruct.

Badly wounded by partygate and other Tory scandals, Johnson was ultimately run out of town by his own team.

His replacement, Liz Truss, lasted 49 disastrous days, plunging the country and the Conservatives into turmoil.

Rishi Sunak picked up the reins but the damage was done.

A damaged economy and rampant inflation meant the clock was ticking on the 14-year Tory regime.

It meant that Farage, by then a TV presenter with GB News and soaring in popularity thanks to a stint in the jungle on I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here!, was licking his lips.

It was time for the big beast to return to the political fray.

He did so on June 3 this year, one month before the General Rlection, taking control of Reform once again. And we know what happened next.

Numbers in politics are everything and Reform’s are rising, rapidly.

They have five MPs for starters. A year ago this would have been scarcely believable.

But the Tory implosion combined with Lee Anderson’s arrival from the Conservatives last spring resulted in the party’s historic election breakthrough with more than four million people – 600,000 more than the Liberal Democrats – voting for them.

As well as Farage in Clacton and Anderson in Ashfield, deputy leader Tice won in Boston and Skegness, Rupert Lowe took Great Yarmouth, and James McMurdock scooped South Basildon and East Thurrock.

By 2029, Reform could fare much, much better.

A mega poll released over Christmas showed it is on course to emerge as the third-largest party.

Analysis, by the think tank More in Common suggests Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72, with the Lib Dems securing 58 seats, the SNP 37 and the Green Party on two.

The implied national vote share has Labour on 25%, the Conservatives on 26%, Reform on 21%, the Lib Dems on 14%, the Greens on 8%, the SNP on 2%.

However, Reform’s ambition isn’t to come third.

Electoral Calculus estimates that the party doesn’t have to grow much further than that to topple Labour.

With 28% of the public’s vote, just 6% more than its current support, the political pollster says Reform would become the largest party in parliament with just under 200 seats.

If their vote share increases to 31%, Reform would get an overall Commons majority and Nigel Farage would most likely be prime minister.

The mindboggling numbers don’t stop there.

Reform’s masterplan has seen it open more than 400 constituency branches in the past six months – at least two a day.

Grassroots support is rocketing.

A membership ticker on the Reform UK website proudly boasts it is the nation’s “fastest-growing” political party and now has an army of members greater than the Conservatives.

At the time of writing, membership had hit 165,000.

It means that Reform now has the second-biggest membership of any political party in the UK, behind only Labour which has 367,000 supporters.

Why is this important?

Grassroots members are the essential backbone of a party. They’re more likely to get involved in leafleting and campaigning at elections.

It has also made others sit up and take note.

One senior Tory MP told the Daily Express that Reform’s growing party infrastructure is a “wake-up call”.

“It’s remarkable how quickly this is happening and it really is a wake-up call for all of us,” said the MP.

“Their new branches are everywhere you look.”

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s recent spat with Farage over party membership numbers shows the Tories are rattled by Reform’s rise too, according to senior Conservatives.

“It was foolish to get involved in that as it just put the spotlight on how well Reform are doing in that respect. We need to focus on our own ship, not others,” they said.

Reform says its branches will be laser-focused on campaigning in target areas ahead of local elections in May, when they will field hundreds of candidates across the country.

Wales, where support for Reform is booming, and Scotland are key areas too.

Both nations have parliamentary elections in 2026, with Reform looking for big gains, particularly in the Welsh Senedd.

The other vital area in which Reform’s numbers are surging is online.

Nigel Farage is undoubtedly the king of social media.

Across X, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram and YouTube he has an enormous following of 5.4million.

This is more than twice the number of Sir Keir Starmer (2.6 million), and 17 times higher than Badenoch’s 320,000.

Traditional media cut-through is essential, but in 2025 social media is increasingly where voters get their information.

While most of its supporters are still older white men, according to YouGov’s post-election analysis, Reform’s social media dominance has fuelled a surge in support among younger age groups, including young men aged 18-24.

Soaring numbers don’t necessarily mean success, however. It’s no use putting rocket fuel into a car if you’re going to crash it at every turn.

Reform appears to be on the road to getting this bit cracked too.

At its annual conference in the autumn, Farage said his party had passed through its adolescent tantrums and was now coming of age.

Being professional is a key mantra for Reform and Farage has beefed up the internal vetting of candidates.

It cannot afford to be sidelined by many of the problems of UKIP of yesteryear – an army of enthusiastic, but often ill-disciplined, supporters and candidates with a habit of saying racist or just plain bizarre things on social media.

As the party continues its upward trajectory in 2025, it will be worth keeping an eye on two men within Reform – the chairman, Zia Yusuf, and the new treasurer, Nick Candy.

They personify Farage’s twin aims for his party – getting more organised and generating money.

Yusuf, a self-made millionaire, has already made a chunky donation to Reform, while Candy, a billionaire property tycoon, has promised a seven-figure sum.

Can Reform really blast apart Britain’s two-party politics? That’s the 100 million dollar question.

And that $100million (£78million) could come from the world’s richest man, Elon Musk.

Farage and Candy met the tech billionaire last month at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump‘s Florida club.

The Reform leader said Musk “left us in no doubt that he is right behind us” and launched “ongoing negotiations” about a financial contribution.

If Reform wants to compete or even surpass Labour and the Tories, it needs cold, hard cash and lots of it.

Support from the SpaceX boss would send them into the financial stratosphere.

Crucially, they will be able to compete at every level with their rivals.

Farage’s strong relationship with Trump, who made the most dramatic political comeback of all in the US election, also puts Reform in a unique position.

Global politics will be dominated by Trump over the next four years and the Reform leader, who will attend his mate’s presidential inauguration in just under three weeks’ time, will reap the rewards.

Their policies on immigration, tax cuts and opposing net zero chime together.

Farage also wants Britain to seal a mega-Brexit trade deal with the US following Trump’s return to the White House.

With its popularity soaring and the prospect of megabucks donations the stage is set for Reform UK to create the biggest political upheaval in more than 100 years, since Labour displaced the old Liberal party in 1922.

Farage and his team will look to recent history for similar examples. The DUP replaced the UUP as the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland, while Emmanuel Macron and his En Marche! party came from nowhere to storm to the French presidency.

They are also taking inspiration from the success of Right-wing populist movements in Germany and France.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally are threatening to do the unimaginable and topple the establishment.

Reform is already imagining the unimaginable.