Nigel Farage surge should be warning to Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch | Politics | News

Reform UK has overtaken Labour in the polls for the first time but it is the Tories who should be most worried. Leader Nigel Farage is leading the most professional political operation of his career.

Driving the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union was a passion project that led to the most significant constitutional change in modern times.

But the colourful, eccentric band of renegades behind Ukip and later the Brexit Party has morphed into a highly organised team that believes its time has come.

The recent defection of former education secretary Dame Andrea Jenkyns was a surprise to few who follow the ups and downs of the Conservative Party closely.

But it means every MP on the right of the party as well as those who lost their seats are now being looked at to see if they will be next. Dame Andrea’s leap was followed soon after by prominent Tory commentator Tim Montgomerie.

When a man who has been a member of the party for more than 30 years, and was so deeply ingrained in it that he set up the successful grassroots website ConservativeHome is jumping ship, it is akin to an emergency flare.

One very senior Tory privately suggested they would give it a year and see how the party is faring before deciding whether to stick or twist. But Reform insiders insist they will not usher in just any Tory.

Voting records and public declarations will be examined to ensure potential defectors are aligned with the insurgent party’s values. At The Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year awards, held in The OWO – a stunning hotel in the Old War Office building – Farage won the tongue in cheek “Newcomer of the Year”.

In his acceptance speech, the Reform leader told the great and the good of Westminster that there will be “hundreds of newcomers under the Reform UK label” next time around.

“We are about to witness a political revolution the likes of which we have not seen since Labour after the first world war,” he added.

Broadcaster Emily Maitlis claimed he sat down to a “silent, stunned room”, which is not quite how I remember it. But it was the chatter among the guests late into the night, with many genuinely worried that he was correct.

Haven’t we been here before with Farage though? He has managed to capture the mood of the nation to dramatic effect for more than a decade without managing to take the party to the next level. This time does appear different. Chairman Zia Yusuf was brought in to professionalise the party. Its previous incarnations have always lacked the ground operation absolutely vital when it comes to a general election.

Now there is a big push to set up local branches, encourage supporters to get together and organise. Farage was quick to capitalise on social media platforms like TikTok, which have made him popular with young men under 25.

All parties are riven with in-fighting but the Ukip years were prone to actual fighting, with an altercation between donor Arron Banks and Douglas Carswell, the party’s only MP at the time, at its conference in Doncaster in 2015. A year later, MEP Steven Woolfe was hospitalised after a “scuffle” with fellow MEP Mike Hookem.

Now, the five Reform MPs turn up to events as a pack, showing they are a united force. No stories have emerged of clashes or divisions, although it is still early days.

A Find Out Now poll put Reform on 24%, above Labour on 23% but behind the Tories on 26%. Sir Keir Starmer will be concerned. Reform came second to Labour in nearly 100 seats.

But it is believed to have cost the Tories around 80 seats last time round and with just 121 MPs the party cannot afford to lose even a handful more.

Labour is bound to take a drubbing in next year’s local and mayoral elections but the Conservatives must show they are able to make significant gains, particularly in red wall areas. New leader Kemi Badenoch wants to take time to reset the party and return it to “first principles”.

But seizing back the momentum from Reform quickly is absolutely crucial if the Conservatives are going to quickly turn around their fortunes. Voters who were previously minded to back Reform but decided not to for fear of splitting the right will be emboldened.

The time for navel gazing in the Tory party is over. She who hesitates is lost.