When will we know who won?

American voters go to the polls on 5 November to choose their next president.

US election results have sometimes been declared within hours of the polls closing, but this year’s close contest could mean a longer wait.

In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning. This time, the tight race in many states could mean media outlets wait longer before projecting who has won.

Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice-president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, have been running neck-and-neck for weeks.

Narrow victories could also mean recounts. In key swing state Pennsylvania, for example, a state-wide recount would be required if there’s a half-percentage-point difference between the votes cast for the winner and loser. In 2020, the margin was just over 1.1 percentage points.

Legal challenges are also possible. More than 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed, including challenges to voter eligibility and voter roll management, by Republicans.

Other scenarios that could cause delays include any election-related disorder, particularly at polling locations.

On the other hand, vote-counting has been sped up in some areas including the crucial state of Michigan, and far fewer votes will be cast by mail than in the last election, which was during the Covid pandemic.

The 2020 election took place on Tuesday 3 November. However, US TV networks did not declare Joe Biden the winner until late morning on Saturday 7 November, after the result in Pennsylvania became clearer.

In other recent elections, voters have had a much shorter wait.

In 2016, when Trump won the presidency, he was declared the winner shortly before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election.

In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.

However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception.

The vote was held on 7 November, but the two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida and the race was not decided until 12 December. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state’s recount process, which kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.

Across the country, the first polls will close at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening and the last polls will close at 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early on Wednesday.

But this race is expected to come down to results from seven swing states which experts believe could plausibly be won by Harris or Trump. These are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

19:00 EST (00:00 GMT) – Polls close in Georgia and five other states, and partially in two more states. This is also when US TV networks are likely to begin making their first calls of the night, in less competitive states like Kentucky.

19:30 EST (00:30 GMT) – Polls close across three states, including North Carolina. With early results from North Carolina and Georgia, a picture may start to form of which candidate is performing better, but it will still be far too early to identify any trend forming nationally.

20:00 EST (01:00 GMT) – Polls close in Pennsylvania, 15 other states and the District of Columbia, as well as partially in Michigan and four other states. Georgia’s top election official estimates that about 75% of votes will be counted by then.

21:00 EST (02:00 GMT) – Voting ends in Arizona, Wisconsin and 12 other states. All remaining polls close in Michigan. Michigan allows officials to begin counting votes one week before election day, but they are not allowed to reveal the results until these polls shut. In contrast, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow vote counting to begin until the start of in-person voting, leading to an expected delay in results from those states.

22:00 EST (03:00 GMT) – Polls close across Nevada and two other states, and partially in two others.

Typically, the votes cast on election day are tallied first, followed by early and mail ballots, those that have been challenged, and then overseas and military ballots.

Local election officials – sometimes appointed, sometimes elected – verify, process and count individual votes, in a process known as canvassing.

Verifying ballots includes comparing the number cast with the number of active voters; removing, unfolding and examining every single ballot for tears, stains or other damage; and documenting and investigating any inconsistencies.

Counting ballots involves feeding each one into electronic scanners that tabulate their results. Some circumstances require manual counts or double-checked tallies.

Every state and locality has rigorous rules about who can participate in the canvass, the order in which votes are processed and which parts are open to the public, including how partisan observers can monitor and intervene in vote-counting.

Once every valid vote has been included in the final results, a process known as the electoral college comes into play.

In each state a varying number of electoral college votes can be won, and it is securing these – and not just the backing of voters themselves – that ultimately wins the presidency.

Generally, states award all of their electoral college votes to whoever wins the popular vote and this is confirmed after meetings on 17 December.

The new US Congress then meets on 6 January to count the electoral college votes and confirm the new president.

After the 2020 election, Trump refused to concede and rallied supporters to march on the US Capitol as Congress was meeting to certify Biden’s victory.

He urged his vice-president, Mike Pence, to reject the results – but Pence refused.

Even after the riot was cleared and members of Congress regrouped, 147 Republicans voted unsuccessfully to overturn Trump’s loss.

Electoral reforms since then have made it harder for lawmakers to object to certified results sent to them from individual states. They have also clarified that the vice-president has no power to unilaterally reject electoral votes.

Nevertheless, election watchers expect that efforts to delay certification of the 2024 vote could take place at the local and state level.

Trump, his running mate JD Vance and top Republican leaders on Capitol Hill have refused on several occasions to state unequivocally that they will accept the results if he loses.

The president-elect will begin their term in office after being inaugurated on Monday, 20 January 2025, in the grounds of the US Capitol complex.

It will be the 60th presidential inauguration in US history.

The event will see the new president sworn in on a pledge to uphold the Constitution and then deliver their inaugural address.